September 3 copper early assessment: Bernanke Chinese data release policy signals weak copper prices range order

Copper price analysis and forecast

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech did not promise to launch QE3, but the release of a further easing signal boost investor confidence. At the same time, the relatively better U.S. economic data, also better than expected U.S. July factory orders data and the August University of Michigan consumer confidence data. China's economic situation is not ideal, the PMI index hit a nine-month low, and give investors confidence suppress this spot or at the shock interval is expected to run.

Market trend analysis

An international market due to the market, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech mild reaction, Bernanke did not clear when the launch of the central bank to the next round of quantitative easing, but reiterated the case of a further slowdown in economic growth, the investor will propose further stimulus was pleased, rose the Zhou Wulun copper fell after the first, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rose $ 24 per $ 7,594; Judging from the trend, LME heavier above the pressure, the short-term shock precious metals The price trend will continue.
Domestic futures copper slightly on Friday opened higher, than LME defensive performance, Yao City bulls take significant advantage, to maintain opening to go trend throughout the day; the main month Shanghai copper 1211 contracts today on 55550 or 80, the current January 1209 contract opened 56,010 up 50; Thursday the European Central Bank meeting on interest rates, expected and will not cut interest rates further, for central bank debt resistance still, copper still maintain a relatively weak pattern.
III. Spot market Friday now copper liters of water fell liters of water a yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton liters of water, the quoted market price of the Yangtze River, the Shanghai market flat water copper transaction price 55900-56000 yuan / ton, the trading price of the premium copper 55950-56050 yuan / ton last Friday at the end of the last trading day, actively shipping, cargo operators who nearly lunchtime, middlemen timely and appropriate access premium copper, downstream demand to accept the goods, the actual turnover of the market is still limited.

Financial Information hotspot

Announcement jointly issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, Aug. official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2, a record nine-month low. This will be the official PMI fell below 50 for the first time since November last year, nationwide manufacturing activity into a shrinking.
(2) Beijing time on August 31 evening news, Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole is not implied QE3, still said that the Fed has prepared the necessary monetary stimulus measures, but did not mention.
The U.S. Commerce Department announced that the United States in July factory orders was an increase of 2.8% was better than expected. July factory orders up 2.8%. According to a Bloomberg News survey, economists on average expected a 2.0% qoq. June factory orders down 0.5%.

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